By Cindy Margret. Cape Town – South African drivers are set for considerable increases in petrol and diesel prices when the latest fuel price adjustments take effect on February 5. The most
By Cindy Margret.
Cape Town – South African drivers are set for considerable increases in petrol and diesel prices when the
latest fuel price adjustments take effect on February 5.
The most recent figures from the Central Energy Fund indicate major shortfalls for both fuel types, projecting
hikes of 88 cents for 95 Unleaded petrol and 95 cents for 93 Unleaded, while diesel appears poised for
increases ranging from R1.08 (50ppm) to R1.11 (500ppm).
This means that 95 ULP petrol could climb to approximately R21.68 along the coast and R22.47 inland, with
93 ULP expected to settle around the R22.54 level.
Nonetheless, this seems to be the optimistic scenario at this point. As the latest daily data has further dipped
into negative territory, these shortfalls are likely to expand as we approach the end of the month, potentially
leading to petrol price hikes of R1 or more if the current trends continue.
These trends are influenced by escalating oil prices and a depreciating rand, which have deteriorated the
situation since early January, when a petrol price rise of roughly 68 cents was anticipated.
Brent crude oil prices, which averaged $72.78 (R1,353) in December, have shown a consistent upward path
throughout January, surpassing the $80 threshold on January 11 and reaching a peak of $82 on the 15th, with
oil trading at $79.92 on January 21.
The rand, which averaged R18.11 during the previous fuel price review period, has also weakened
significantly, breaching the R19 level in early January before bouncing back to R18.60 later in the month, a
movement insufficient to alleviate the repercussions.
The stronger oil prices in January are largely attributed to intensified U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia, along with seasonal demand triggered by freezing weather in the Northern Hemisphere, per the International Energy Agency.
Remarkably, the World Bank forecasted late last year that oil prices would average around $73 in 2025,
assuming no escalation in conflicts in the Middle East. Yet, there is currently considerable uncertainty
surrounding how Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidency might influence global oil prices and the balance of supply
and demand in 2025.
By Cindy Margret.